Let’s have a look at Egypt. It’s toast. Egypt is breaking down
because Hosni Mubarak didn’t create a modern and free economy to propel
the 85 million Egyptian people out of abject poverty. And the Muslim
Brotherhood, who seized power, will likely do a worse job of stewarding
Egypt than Mubarak did.
Egypt has become a bottomless money pit. It has a chronic and
unsolvable balance-of-payments problem created by the need to import 50%
of its food. Socialist energy subsidies consume a quarter of the
national budget. Egypt is a pre-modern Islamic society, with 50%
illiteracy and a 90% rate of female genital mutilation.
Marriage between family members has been practiced in Egypt since the
time of the Pharaohs, and at 35.3%, it’s still high – especially among
first cousins, who make up 86% of the inbreeding couples. As a result,
Egypt is flooded with genetic diseases.
Underemployment is another chronic problem. Over 40% of those that
are even able to find work are underemployed. It would require at least
$20 billion a year to keep this basket case afloat, and no one is going
to provide it. According to the World Health Organization, malnutrition
already afflicts 25% of Egyptians. The Muslim Brotherhood can pray all
it wants for a bumper wheat crop, but even that won’t solve these
problems. Egypt is collapsing.
And They’re Not Alone
Right behind Egypt is Syria. Syria is a complex ethnic and religious
cauldron that’s mired in a violent civil war. Obama now plans to arm the
Sunni jihadists, but this will only increase the bloodshed. It won’t
change the situation. Better weapons only mean a more deadly conflict.
Slowly, Syria is depopulating via death and out-migration. The Syrian
suffering continues.
Of course, such circumstances beg the question… How does this happen?
In a matter of months, these countries spun out of control. The same happened in Russia after the fall of communism.
In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote the groundbreaking book, “The Collapse of Complex Societies.” It was his attempt to explain how a complex and successful society could collapse in a short time. His book is an academic treatise. I don’t recommend it for light reading, but his conclusions are useful.
Tainter’s goal was to create a theory that explained the decline and
fall of societies using a single model. His basic argument is that
increasing complexity eventually renders falling marginal returns for
the society. Think of it this way… The creative-destructive forces
unleashed by capitalism will eventually lead to its demise as a system,
as Joseph Schumpeter put it.
To exhibit his construct, Tainter considers three complex societies:
The Western Roman Empire, the Maya of the southern lowlands, and the
Chacoan Society (Pueblo Indian) of the American Southwest.
Tainter observes that they each suffered significant increased costs
not long before collapsing and they inflicted those costs on a
population already exhausted by burdens they couldn’t handle. According
to Tainter, it wasn’t the challenges that caused the break down; it was a
system of rules that became unproductively complex and made it
impossible for governing bodies to react. These societies were unable to
adapt to change. Think of them as earlier versions of our modern-day
Congress in D.C.
Tainter says that the only solution for over complexity is
simplification. But at the same time, he didn’t believe that complex
societies are able to voluntarily simplify. Collapse, he believed, is
nothing more than involuntary simplification. He explains that collapse
is “not a fall to some primordial chaos, but a return to the normal
human condition of lower complexity…an economizing process.”
Collapse is an Equal-Opportunity Destroyer
Regardless of Tainter’s theories, millions or even billions of people
will be displaced or may even die when our current world order
collapses. Our interdependence and ability to quickly migrate
intensifies local problems across borders. Just ask the Turks. Syrians
have been pouring into Turkey, and now their stressed society seems to
be coming apart at the seams. Just over the horizon is Greece – another
basket case. Across the water is a third stressed society, the island of
Cyprus.
Today, political systems require more and more resources to sustain them, but they’re unable to react to challenges in a successful way.
It’s easy to say of collapse, “That could never happen here.” But
such statements are arrogant. They ignore how Washington, D.C. has
failed to meet the current challenges we face. We no longer enforce many
laws. Obama and Congress pass laws and debate issues with no relevance
to our lives. They ignore our bigger, more complex budgetary and
economic problems.
It’s easy to say that collapse could never come to America, but the
reality is that we’re more vulnerable than most of us realize. The Plain Truth Is!
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